Hello there.

Welcome to Monday, where it looks like we’ve thrown caution to the wind.

Well, I’m sure this’ll all blow over soon… Right, guys?

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You'd think a literal war would tank the market, right? Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon literally said out loud that he's surprised by how calm things have been. The Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world's oil flows through, is basically a no-go zone right now. Ship traffic there has dropped 90%. And yet? The S&P 500 is shrugging it off like it's a minor inconvenience.

Goldman's strategists are even calling this a "buying opportunity" because historically, markets bounce back pretty quick after geopolitical chaos. Data going back to World War II shows the S&P 500 averages about 3% gains six months after major world events. Not nothing!

The real risk is if this drags on. Longer conflict = disrupted energy supply = higher inflation = the Fed keeping rates elevated longer = likely lower stock prices and possible recession. Gas prices are already climbing. Small business owners who drive for work are feeling the squeeze. But for now, retail investors keep buying the dip (like, aggressively), and March/April historically tend to be solid months for stocks anyway. The market's basically saying "this is fine" while sitting in a room that's not not on fire.

Trump officially sent Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Senate last week. Warsh is a former Fed governor who was the youngest person ever to hold that role, and he's been pretty vocal about wanting to cut interest rates faster than Powell has been willing to. Sound familiar? Yeah, Trump loves that about him.

But, as it always seems to go, there’s a catch: Republican Senator Thom Tillis is literally blocking the whole thing until the Justice Department drops its investigation into Powell. The DOJ is looking into whether Powell misled Congress about a $2.5 billion renovation project at Fed headquarters. Tillis thinks the whole probe is basically political intimidation, and he's not having it. So we've got a Republican blocking a Republican president's pick because of the Republican administration's investigation. What a doozy.

Anyway, Powell's term ends May 15, so the clock is ticking. If Warsh doesn't get confirmed in time, Powell stays on as acting chair. Either way, the vibes at the Fed are about to shift hard toward rate cuts, but we’re always one headline away from chaos. Stay diversified. Stay curious.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.