Hello there.

If finance were a reality show, this week would be the finale.

Grab your popcorn, and let’s get into it.

In partnership with AltIndex

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Well… that escalated quickly. In a 6-3 decision that basically nobody saw coming from a conservative-majority court, the justices ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping global tariffs was, well, illegal.

Chief Justice Roberts delivered the kill shot: "When Congress grants the power to impose tariffs, it does so clearly and with careful constraints. It did neither here." So, the president checked the wrong statutory box, and now more than $130 billion in collected tariff revenue is sitting in legal limbo…. The S&P 500 immediately popped 0.6% on the news, which tells you everything about how much Wall Street hated the tariff regime. Or really, the uncertainty of Trump’s tariff style.

But the trade war is still on, apparently. Trump fired back over the weekend by declaring 15% global tariffs. Which is actually a more intense tariff regime than before! How can they be more intense when they aren’t as high as the 25% or 50% tariffs we’ve seen? Because they’re across the board, on everyone and everything.

Still confused? We were too, so we made a quick table to explain it to ourselves and to you:

But here’s where it gets even spicier for your portfolio: the question of refunds from the old tariffs is now a complete mess. Costco, Bumble Bee Foods, and hundreds of other importers have already filed suits hoping to claw back what they paid. Estimates suggest $100-130 billion could flow back to businesses if the lower courts play ball.

So, in summary, the era of tariff-by-tweet appears to be over, and import-heavy retailers are breathing (a bit) easier today… Even if it’s just because they know they’ll pay 15% tariffs maximum instead of wondering if they’ll wake up to a 12,949% Trump tariff every Monday morning.

In partnership with EnergyX

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Bitcoin just logged its fifth straight week of decline, sitting below $67,000 and down 46% from its October peak. If you've been doom-scrolling Crypto Twitter, wondering whether the bottom is in, Eric Trump has a message for you: toughen up or buy bonds.

"If you don't have the backbone, the wherewithal to weather volatility, go invest in some boring bond that's going to yield you 4.5% and call it a day". He pointed to Bitcoin's price a decade ago (under $500) as evidence that long-term believers get rewarded. Meanwhile, World Liberty Financial, the Trump family's crypto venture, is pushing into tokenization with a real estate project in the Maldives tied to a future Trump resort.

Meanwhile, he’s apparently deleting a bunch of tweets about World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the Trumps’ crypto company:

While retail investors are panic-selling (and tweet deletes aside), the Trump Organization has been betting that tokenized assets will change the game for good. World Liberty's stablecoin USD1 has already swelled to $5 billion in market cap, and Eric claims the debanking his family experienced pushed them into crypto out of necessity. Whether you buy that narrative or not, the Trump brothers aren't backing down from their position that crypto is the future of finance. Just don't expect them to hold your hand during drawdowns.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Trading data comes from our partner, Altindex.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.