Hello there.

Monday again, baby. Hope you’ve recovered from your 4th of July antics.

And at the end of the day, what’s more patriotic than our politicians making questionable trading plays? Just like the Founding Fathers intended. 🇺🇸

Today’s sponsor:

The Federal Reserve just pulled a full “wait and see” and refused to tell anyone what it’s doing next. At a big central banking meetup in Portugal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh basically said inflation is still too high… and that’s the main thing he cares about right now. “We’re going to deliver price stability,” he said, pointing out that inflation is still running well above target.

Translation: rate cuts are not guaranteed. Actually, rate hikes are back on the table.

Markets are already bracing. After the last meeting, traders started pricing in a decent chance of at least one rate hike by year-end, possibly as soon as September. That’s a big vibe shift from earlier this year, when people were betting on cuts.

What makes this more heated is Warsh’s new communication style. He hates giving “forward guidance,” which basically means dropping hints about future moves. Instead of telling Wall Street what’s coming, he’s basically saying, “We’ll decide when we get in the room.” Bit of a mystery-box style of policy-making.

All this means volatility could stick around. Higher rates tend to cool things off. They make borrowing more expensive, slow down spending, and can put pressure on stocks, especially the high-growth names that love cheap money. But if inflation keeps easing, he might not need to hike at all.

So what’s the move? Keep it simple. Companies with strong cash flow and pricing power usually handle higher-rate environments better than the “we’ll be profitable someday” startups. And if you’re waiting for the Fed to rescue markets with easy money, you might be waiting a while.

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Now for the plot twist of the week.

President Trump disclosed that an account in his name bought between $1 million and $5 million worth of Axon stock on Feb. 10. Two weeks later, ICE posted a notice seeking a five-year, $220 million contract for new Tasers. The kicker is, experts say the specs in that notice appear to match Axon’s products almost exactly.

To be clear, there’s no proof of insider trading. No contract has been awarded. The White House says Trump’s assets are in accounts managed by third parties and that there are no conflicts of interest. Presidents are also exempt from certain conflict-of-interest laws that apply to other officials.

Still, the timing has people raising eyebrows.

ICE currently has about 4,300 conductive energy weapons in the field. The new notice would replace and expand that inventory to roughly 17,800 devices over five years. The request specifically mentions features like a 45-foot range and 10-probe cartridges, which line up with Axon’s Taser 10 model.

Axon stock jumped more than 30% in the week after the notice was posted. Since then, it’s cooled off and is down sharply for the year overall. Welcome to government-dependent stocks: they can moon on headlines and whipsaw just as fast.

For investors, here’s the bigger takeaway. Axon’s growth story is heavily tied to federal and local government contracts. Those deals can be massive and sticky. They can also get delayed, reshaped, or canceled depending on budgets and politics. The potential ICE contract hasn’t been awarded yet, and reports suggest it may be stalled.

If you’re looking at Axon, you’re basically betting on two things: continued expansion of federal enforcement budgets and Axon’s ability to stay the go-to provider. That can be lucrative. It can also be unpredictable.

The moral of the story is the same as always: When politics and portfolios collide, stocks can move fast. Just make sure you’re investing based on the business, not just the headline.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

Trading data provided by our partners at AltIndex.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.