Hello there.

The war continues, retail investors are getting tired, and there’s petroleum in our generic drugs?!

Up Next:

More below, but first, a gold miner stock still below $1:

For most of the past decade, gold was viewed as a hedge.

Now it's being repriced as a strategic asset.

Bank of America and JPMorgan have both lifted their gold targets toward $6,000 as central bank buying accelerates and fiscal uncertainty grows.

When that happens, capital usually flows first into bullion and large producers.

Smaller exploration names often follow later.

But one junior still trades under $1 with drilling underway in a district that has produced more than 30 million ounces of gold.

Why it stands out:

Wall Street has repriced many gold names.

Not this one.

Have you noticed there’s been this sort of unspoken retail resolution so far this year? Yeah, that energy is fading. JPMorgan just dropped a report saying regular folks pulled back on stock buying by about 30% in the past week. That's the first real sign of "buyer fatigue" we've seen all year.

What's going on? Basically, the Iran situation is freaking everyone out, and inflation isn’t going away. When the world feels chaotic, people stop throwing money at stocks and start sitting on their hands, as you’d expect.

The weird part is, though, people are still buying AI stocks. Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Palantir: those names keep getting love even when everything else is getting the cold shoulder. Like everything with tech giants these days, it’s weird.

Under the surface, the stock market is way more chaotic than it looks. The S&P 500 is only down 3% for the year, which sounds like a minor setback, but peep the spread: 57 stocks are up at least 20%, and 47 are down at least 20%. Defense and energy stocks are thriving (war will do that), while software companies are getting absolutely wrecked. If retail slows down and mega caps stay meh… someone else has to step up. Or the market just kind of drifts.

Fun fact: almost half of the generic drugs Americans take come from India. Totally random, incidental bonus fun fact: India gets a huge chunk of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. See where this is going?

The connection is actually pretty direct. A lot of medications need petroleum-based ingredients to make. Think about common stuff like acetaminophen (yeah, Tylenol). Plus, India needs that oil to power the factories that make generic versions of diabetes meds, blood pressure pills, antibiotics, and basically everything your parents take daily.

Don't panic yet, though. Most pharmacies and distributors keep 30 to 60 days’ worth of stuff stockpiled. Industry experts say we're fine for now. Companies have been through Covid, the Red Sea shipping mess, and Ukraine, so (hopefully) they've learned to plan for chaos. Some Indian drugmakers are even building factories in Florida to cut down on the whole "shipping across the world during a war" problem.

But here's the deal: if the Strait stays closed for a long time, prices will go up first, then shortages could start showing up within four to six weeks. Air cargo rates from India have already jumped 200 to 350% on some routes. Generic drugs have super thin profit margins, so any cost increase hits them hardest. It's like when gas prices spike and suddenly everything at the grocery store costs more. Same energy, different supply chain.

For now, the pills are on the shelves. But it's worth keeping an eye on how long this Iran situation drags out.

A lot can happen in a week!

Let’s take a quick look at who struck gold and who struck out since our last issue:

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): +5.85%
Walmart Inc. (WMT): +0.61%
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): +0.23%
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG): +0.22%
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): +0.15%

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): -7.07%
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): -3.41%
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): -2.54%
Apple Inc. (AAPL): -2.21%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): -1.22%

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake of Invested Inc.