Hello there.

Welcome to the week. Just a few Mondays after Powell’s exit, and he’s already looking vindicated.

It’s gotta feel nice, ya know? To be able to say “I told ya so” as you walk away from the explosion. Good on ya, Jerome.

So remember when we all thought inflation was chilling out? Yeah, about that... The Fed's favorite way to measure prices just came in hot for April, and Goldman Sachs' second-in-command called it "the single biggest risk element" to the economy. That's not what you wanna hear from a guy with his finger on the pulse. Papa Powell must be tossing and turning at night after he passed the torch to the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh.

So, prices are still climbing faster than anyone wants, and the Fed is basically stuck. They can't cut interest rates (which would make borrowing cheaper for everyone) because inflation won't cooperate. The core number hit 3.3% for the year, which sounds slim until you realize the Fed wants it at 2%. We're not there, and we’re not even headed in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Elon’s take on inflation… Either 4D chess or the most wishful of wishful thinking:

A lot of this inflation is being fueled by AI companies spending money like it's going out of style. All that infrastructure they're building doesn't really care about high interest rates the way normal stuff does. So the usual playbook for cooling things down isn't working as well, and now the Fed's stuck watching from the sidelines while inflation does its thing, probably stress-eating trail mix in a conference room somewhere.

Politicians trading stocks isn't new, but the way Republican lawmakers are doing it definitely is. Their portfolios used to be full of oil companies and cigarette makers. Now? It's basically a tech bro starter pack. Intel, Nvidia, and even a Bitcoin ETF have taken over.

The shift not-so-inconspicuously matches what Trump has been hyping up. The government took a 10% stake in Intel last year, and suddenly, lawmakers started buying it like it was going out of style. Intel now makes up almost 8% of GOP portfolios, up from around 3% just a few months ago.

And the timing on some of these trades is... interesting. Like, some lawmakers were buying Intel stock before Trump announced the government's stake, which makes you wonder if they knew something we didn't. One New Jersey congressman has been missing from Capitol Hill for over 80 days due to health issues, but is still actively trading stocks from wherever he is. Dude won't vote on bills, but he'll absolutely move money around in Take-Two Interactive.

The returns have been wild, too. Republican lawmakers are up over 20% so far this year, partly because Intel is up more than 220%. Democrats are trailing at about 9%, though they've always been heavy on tech anyway. There are actually ETFs that let you copy their trades if you want to play along at home. The Republican one is called KRUZ, and the Democrat one is called NANC. Yeah, subtle. They charge 1% in fees, which is kinda steep, but the real catch is that lawmakers report trades up to 45 days after making them. In market time, that’s ancient history. By the time you copy the move, the easy gains might already be gone. Still, it’s… entertaining? I guess? Just take a heavy dose of copium, sit back, and watch our benevolent overlords make bank.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Trading data brought to you by our partners at AltIndex.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.