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Happy Monday! Hope your neck isn’t too stiff from all the market whiplash we’ve been experiencing…

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Two weeks ago, filling up a Boeing 737 with fuel cost about $17,000. Then we started a war… and that same tank jumped to over $27,000 in a matter of days 😅 Jet fuel prices spiked more than 60% after the initial attacks on Iran, and airlines are already sliding the bill across the table to you as flights get more expensive to book.

Cathay Pacific is doubling fuel surcharges. Qantas and others are hiking fares. United’s CEO has all but said that prices will, in fact, keep going up. And more than 46,000 flights have been canceled across the Middle East, forcing planes to take longer routes that burn even more fuel. It’s a mess.

Obviously, fuel is one of an airline’s biggest expenses. It’s second only to employee salaries. So when oil jumps, their costs jump instantly. And unlike your favorite burger joint, they can’t just skimp on patty sizes when the price of beef goes up. Planes still need the same amount of fuel to fly.

So what happens next?

If travel demand stays strong, airlines have room to raise prices without empty seats. If people start flinching at $800 roundtrips, airlines cut routes instead. Either way, margins get squeezed before passengers do.

In market terms, this becomes a game of “who can handle chaos best.” Airlines with loyal, higher-income customers tend to pass along price hikes more easily. Budget carriers? Not so much. And the longer oil stays hard to get, the more airlines’ financial performances start sounding uncomfortable.

Bottom line: Airline stocks do not look good right now. However, several oil and energy stocks look really strong at the moment on our partner AltIndex’s platform:

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While Netflix and Paramount were in an all-out bidding war over Warner Bros., someone was quietly buying bonds in both companies. Care to take a guess?

Here’s the plot so far: Paramount Skydance is trying to pull off a massive $111 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, and now the labor unions are urging the DOJ to block the deal unless there are enforceable job protections.

Why? Because big mergers usually come with “synergies,” which is corporate code for layoffs and cost-cutting. Paramount says it expects around $6 billion in savings. That doesn’t exactly scream “we’re hiring.”

Now for the big reveal: During the earlier bidding war, President Trump reportedly bought over $1.1 million in Netflix bonds while publicly questioning the merger’s chances. Bonds are basically IOUs that companies use to borrow money. If the company stays stable and pays interest, bondholders chill and collect.

It’s not illegal. Presidents are exempt from certain conflict-of-interest rules. Still, it adds a layer of drama to an already chaotic bidding war.

So what does any of this mean outside of Hollywood?

Media companies are under pressure. Streaming growth has slowed, debt is high, and everyone is trying to bulk up to survive. When two giants combine, it can mean stronger negotiating power and bigger libraries. It can also mean messy integration and a sort of awkward puberty phase of cost-cutting that takes years to sort out.

Investors care about two things here: debt and execution. These deals often come financed with mountains of borrowed money. If the new combo can grow subscriptions and cut costs without blowing up the brand, it works. If not, shareholders are gonna feel it. Either way, we’re in for some real cinema.

Pass the popcorn.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

Trading data from our partners at AltIndex.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.