Private Credit is This Season's Spookiest Option

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Wall Street’s nerves are showing after the collapses of First Brands and Tricolor exposed hidden credit risks. The panic faded fast, but it reminded investors how fragile confidence can be late in a credit cycle. Retail investors pulled cash from high-yield bond and loan ETFs, signaling a collective “maybe we’ve had enough risk for now.”

Moody’s says the system is still sound, with high-yield default rates under 5% and expected to fall below 3% next year. Private credit billionaire Lawrence Golub insists direct lending isn’t a bubble, arguing that disciplined operators still deliver premium returns. The message from the pros: credit markets might be messy, but they’re not broken.

This is a moment to separate hype from opportunity. Quality credit ETFs and well-managed BDCs could quietly outperform while everyone else waits for a crash that may never come.

When Walmart raised its starting pay a decade ago, investors revolted and torched $21 billion in market value overnight. That same move is now a Harvard Business School case study on how treating workers well can launch a historic sales run. What a legendary turnaround for the Mart of Walls.

This focus on long-term value is touching other consumer-facing businesses too. Companies are tapping underserved markets, like Canyon Ranch's new women-focused wellness resort, or creating new ones entirely by pitching bottled water as a fine-dining luxury.

This all aligns with what Morgan Stanley calls a "Goldilocks" scenario: favor consumer companies that invest in their people and create premium experiences, as they seem best positioned to thrive in the current market.

Here are the top-rated retail stocks on AltIndex today. Their AI model thinks that these stocks have the highest chance to outperform over the next 6 months.

A lot can happen in a week!

Let’s take a quick look at who struck gold and who struck out since our last issue:

Apple Inc. (AAPL): +6.19%
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): +2.51%
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG): +2.09%

Oracle Corporation (ORCL): -10.30%
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): -4.15%
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): -3.63%

Analysis provided by ​altindex.com​.

Remember to always DYOR.

ARM Holdings is a leading semiconductor and software design company, known for its innovative architecture that powers a significant portion of the world's mobile devices and embedded systems.

Current price: $165.49
Target price: $205.31

Stryker Corporation operates as a medical technology company. The company sells its products to doctors, hospitals, and other healthcare facilities through company-owned subsidiaries and branches, as well as third-party dealers and distributors in approximately 75 countries.

Current price: $387.74
Target price: $451.5

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake of Invested Inc.