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Trump casually mentioned he won't rule out war with Venezuela, and oil traders collectively remembered that geopolitics is still a thing. Brent crude limped back above $60 per barrel after it hit four-year lows.

Here's the plot twist: the market barely flinched. Venezuela pumps less than 1% of the global oil supply, and the US is drowning in domestic crude. The real comedy is Trump's team asking Exxon and ConocoPhillips if they want back into Venezuela post-Maduro. Their response? "Not really, no." At $57 oil (WTI), even the world's largest reserves aren't worth the headache of rebuilding a country's oil infrastructure from scratch.

Energy players like Valero and Phillips 66 could see refining margins tighten if Venezuelan barrels actually disappear. But with the Permian Basin rig count at its lowest since 2021 and a global supply glut looming in 2026, this feels more like a temporary blip than a sustained rally. The XLE energy ETF might get a bounce, but don't mistake noise for signal 👆

Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations are heating up, and while European defense stocks are having an existential crisis, American investors should be eyeing the consumer brands that got absolutely wrecked by pulling out of Russia.

Philip Morris is the poster child here, with 8% of total sales coming from Russia and Ukraine before the war. That's nearly double any other S&P 500 stock's exposure. The company still pays a juicy 5% dividend yield, and analysts think a peace deal could boost EPS growth back toward normal levels. PepsiCo had 4.4% revenue exposure and has been quietly maintaining volume growth despite the hit. McDonald's operated over 600 Russian locations, representing 4.2% of revenue, before shutting them down.

Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Raytheon sold off on peace optimism, but NATO spending commitments run through 2035. Countries will spend the next decade restocking weapons sent to Ukraine. The "peace dividend" everyone's pricing in might actually be a "restocking boom" nobody's ready for.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Data provided by AltIndex.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.