It’s Monday again, and the world looks quite different from 7 days ago. Israel and Iran are attacking one another, China continues to cozy up to Africa, and people can’t decide whether the US or Nippon Steel came out on top in their recent deal. And things are looking tough for Moderna right now…

But first, a case study on alternative data from AltIndex:

In 2023, Cloudflare was flying under the radar. But AltIndex's AI-powered stock models lit up. Why?

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AltIndex uses alternative data—search trends, job postings, Glassdoor reviews, and more—to catch winners before Wall Street does. This isn’t hindsight. It’s how we invest.

This week:

Check back Wednesday for our weekly stock market roundup—and Friday for our tech industry edition.

via CNBC

Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear sites sent oil prices leaping over 7%, the sharpest single-day move since 2022. They’ve just fallen 2% today, though—it seems the markets are betting on a quick resolution to the conflict. I want to talk to whatever analyst they’re talking to though, because at least a few disagree.

Fears of a broader fighting and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz have investors on edge, as Israel expanded strikes to Iranian gas facilities over the weekend. The South Pars field was hit, along with a major oil depot near Tehran. Iran retaliated with missile fire that damaged a refinery in Haifa. Crude prices pulled back Monday. US oil fell 1.5% to $71.90 after briefly touching $77.48 overnight. With OPEC+ spare capacity still in play, the question remains: is Polymarket a stupid way to forecast world events or genius?

via Businessday NG

China is rolling out zero-tariff access for several African countries, expanding a policy that previously favored only the least-developed nations—and also taking some very intense-looking PR photos:

This move, announced at a high-level forum, aims to deepen trade ties and rebalance China’s $60 billion trade surplus with the continent. Middle-income economies like Nigeria, Kenya, and Egypt could reap a lot of benefit here, while Beijing frames the policy as a push for “inclusive globalization”, opening the door for companies with African exposure.

via Yahoo Finance

Moderna shares slipped after Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dismissed the entire CDC vaccine advisory panel, replacing them with new members.

The company’s RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, just won FDA approval for expanded use, but we have no idea what will happen as it faces a crucial CDC recommendation from this new panel. Investors are watching closely as the shake-up injects fresh regulatory risk into the vaccine sector—and renewed vigor in our search for good puns. Biotech investors will probably stay nimble as they monitor upcoming panel decisions.

via CNBC​

President Trump has stated that the US government will maintain a "golden share" in US Steel, retaining 51% ownership of the company. We’re just trying to figure out if that’s worse or better than a golden parachute.

The announcement has created confusion among investors and union members, as US Steel has previously stated in its filings that it would become a wholly owned subsidiary of Nippon North America. The American people are split on whether this is a socialist move by Trump’s White House or a strategic win.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

I want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when—so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Analysis provided by ​quiverquant.com.

Remember to always DYOR.

Disclosures