Hello there.

Welcome to this week’s heavyweight title match!

It’s sure to be a real knock-out, folks. Don’t touch that dial!

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Silicon Valley just wandered into a live‑fire policy debate with the US military, and it’s getting spicy.

Anthropic’s $200M Pentagon deal is on the brink after the Defense Department demanded its model be available for “all lawful purposes.” Anthropic said cool, but absolutely not for mass surveillance or fully autonomous weapons. The Pentagon basically replied, “Nah fam we’re gonna need zero restrictions.” Things escalated from there, with a senior official publicly saying Dario Amodei has a “god complex” (what a public roast).

And Dario’s rivals were watching…

Enter OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman, who decided to thread the world’s tiniest needle. OpenAI says it shares the same red lines, meaning no AI for mass surveillance and no killer robots running solo. At the same time, Altman still wants a deal to get ChatGPT into classified government systems. He even told staff this is now an industry‑wide moment, not just an Anthropic problem… So yeah, no avoiding the elephant-sized Terminator in the room.

For now, we’re left with two big takeaways:

First, defense contracts are sticky, high‑margin, and enormous. If OpenAI replaces Anthropic, that’s way bigger than a PR headline. We’re talking recurring revenue tied to the largest military budget on Earth for either AI darling, and they’re both talking about going public this year. (Also, both companies would love to make more revenue, as they’re both famous for burning cash at the moment.)

Second, this is the first real test of whether AI giants can impose ethical guardrails on the US government and still win contracts. If the Pentagon refuses to let private firms dictate usage terms, the bargaining power of these companies might be smaller than the hype suggests.

This type of dialogue is taking AI beyond the hype-bro mega-cap growth story. We’re trekking through uncharted geopolitical territory now. Stay tuned to see if they can keep one foot in Washington and one foot in Silicon Valley without getting knocked out by either side 😬

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The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.98% last week for the first time since September 2022, which sounds like great news until you remember rates were below 3% during the pandemic. But hey, psychology matters. A mortgage starting with a 5 instead of a 6 hits different, even if your monthly payment is still brutal.

At 5.98%, a $350,000 loan works out to $2,094 per month in principal and interest. Drop that rate to 5.5%, and you save about $100 monthly, or over $1,200 per year. Not life-changing, but enough to make fence-sitters wonder if this is about to be their moment.

The catch is that nearly 69% of homeowners are sitting on mortgages at 5% or lower… so a rate barely under 6% isn't convincing them to sell and trade up. The "lock-in effect" that froze inventory for years is starting to thaw, but it's still winter out there.

Then there’s that weird subplot where Trump recently said he wants to keep home prices elevated because "people that own their homes, we're going to keep them wealthy." So mortgage rates are falling, but don't expect home prices to follow. The median existing home price has risen for 31 straight months and sits near record highs. Lower rates just mean you can afford a slightly bigger slice of an expensive pie.

Buyers are getting about $30,000 more in purchasing power than a year ago, which is cool, unless you're competing with cash buyers or someone who locked in a 2.75% rate in 2021 and has zero incentive to move (which you are). Welcome to the spring buying season, where affordability is relative, and somehow we’re able to feel nostalgic for 2020.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Trading data comes from our partner, Altindex.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.