I Hope You Filled Up Your Tank Last Week...

Hello there.

Unbelievable developments in the Middle East (and at your local gas station) this week…

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Might have to swallow my pride and start looking for a used Prius. Let’s get into it.

In partnership with Brownstone Research

So you know how every time something goes down in the Middle East, gas prices decide to have a moment? Yeah, that's happening right now (if you haven’t felt it in your wallet already).

Oil prices shot up over 7% on Monday after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and things got messy fast. Brent crude oil hit around $78 per barrel, up from $73 just days earlier, and briefly touched $82 before settling down a bit.

Here's the deal: about 20% of the world's oil flows through this narrow water passage called the Strait of Hormuz (basically a chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman). Iran controls one side of it, and they're not going to let anything through that could potentially help the countries currently bombing them. So, oil prices are probably on the up. And when oil gets more expensive, so does basically everything else (we explain in a moment).

The good news? A quick $10 jump in oil prices usually translates to only about 25 cents more per gallon at American gas pumps. Not ideal, but also not the end of the world. The bad news? If this drags on for weeks or months, you're not just paying more for gas. Everything that gets shipped (which is basically everything) gets more expensive too. Your Uber, your groceries, that random thing you ordered online at 2am… all of it costs more when the fuel to transport it costs more. Especially from overseas!

Oil companies like Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) rose quickly on Monday, but they’re largely back down to where they were before the spike (XOM is now down about 9% and CVX is down 5%).

It feels like we’re all basically watching and hoping this doesn't turn into a repeat of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, and gas prices hit over $5 a gallon. For now, it's a "wait and see" situation. But maybe don't plan any road trips until we know more? 😬

In the most chaotic Hollywood plot twist of 2026, Netflix was this close to buying Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming service for $73 billion. Then last week, they walked away after Paramount Skydance swooped in with a better offer of $110 billion.

Netflix's stock had tanked 30% during the whole bidding war saga because shareholders were like, "why are we spending this much money?" When Netflix backed out, its stock jumped back up 14%. They also walked away with a $2.8 billion breakup fee from Paramount (yeah, that’s a thing), which is honestly a pretty sweet consolation prize.

This could end up being an Oscar-winning performance for Warner Bros. Paramount's deal includes roughly $24 billion from Gulf state sovereign wealth funds, and the FCC chair already said he expects it to get approved "pretty quickly" since apparently it (somehow) doesn't raise the same monopoly red flags. That's bullish for WBD shareholders who've been waiting for something, anything, to move the needle.

Now Paramount's deal looks way more likely to actually happen. The FCC chairman basically said their bid is "cleaner" and should get approved "pretty quickly." And for streaming platform users? Get ready for HBO Max and Paramount+ to merge into one mega-streaming service. The endless struggle to figure out which platforms have the shows you want to see might get even more complex.

A lot can happen in a week!

Let’s take a quick look at who struck gold and who struck out since our last issue:

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): +4.70%
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): +3.38%
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): +1.57%
Walmart Inc. (WMT): +1.42%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): +1.42%

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): -5.75%
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): -4.62%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): -4.25%
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG): -3.58%
Apple Inc. (AAPL): -1.91%

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake of Invested Inc.