Elon's Party in the USA—No Recession Pop Needed

Happy Monday!

We woke up Saturday morning to Elon Musk launching a political party, the White House declaring a recession “impossible” (although we love some Recession Pop), and the Fed being forced to whisper “not yet” on rate cuts—again. It’s giving chaotic stability.

Meanwhile, a new trade deal is taking aim at China’s favorite loophole, and the June jobs report just tossed another wrench into the markets’ cut-rate fantasy.

All that and more in today’s issue.

We also want to showcase a stock: Surf Air Mobility $SRFM ( ▼ 2.02% ), which has strong momentum and a recent insider buy from $PLTR ( ▼ 1.51% ) ($2,153,952 in shares on June 18th). More below!

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This week:

via Business Insider

Elon officially founded the American Party this weekend after posting a Twitter poll asking if people wanted one. (Imagine if people hadn’t voted that they wanted him to do it? Would’ve been awkward)

Musk also says the America Party will embrace Bitcoin, as “Fiat is hopeless.”

Check out an in-depth Twitter analysis of what Musk’s end game is—and why he might not be planning to defeat the Republican party, but to reprogram it entirely.

Dive into the 4D chess (or foolishness) behind Elon’s political play →

Here’s why Surf Air Mobility makes for an interesting aviation stock:

Get the full stock report and decide for yourself →

via Yahoo! Finance

Recession? Apparently, we’re done with that narrative.

Polymarket odds for a US recession this year dropped from 66% to just 22%—a wild shift powered by recent economic strength.

Even more bold is the White House’s proclamation that the US has absolutely zero chance of facing a recession.

(A vintage 2022 recession meme:)

Seems like the White House is posturing, but the fact that Economic Advisor Hassett would even say that is telling markets that the WH might do anything in its power to prevent a recession from happening. Still might not work though.

via Yahoo Finance

President Trump signed a new trade deal with Vietnam—but it looks like the real target was China.

The deal sets a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40% tariff on goods deemed to be transshipped from China, targeting the practice of “origin washing.”

This practice—where Chinese companies relabel goods as Vietnamese to avoid tariffs—has surged. The challenge now is enforcement. Southeast Asian supply chains are notoriously twisty.

Still, this could mark a serious tightening of trade enforcement across the region.

via Yahoo Finance

The US economy added 147,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, beating expectations and showing continued labor market resilience. In other news, we have no idea how farms are doing.

Anyway, unemployment fell to 4.1% instead of rising, as many economists had forecast. This strong showing means that 1) economists can be so wrong and 2) there are even lower chances of a Fed rate cut in July, with market odds dropping from 24% to just 5%. The data now points to a cooling but still solid economy, with the Fed likely to stay patient.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

I want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when—so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Analysis provided by ​quiverquant.com.

Remember to always DYOR.

Disclosures