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This week, we’ve got…

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After an insane 44-day record government shutdown, we finally got the September jobs report, and it was pretty surprising: we got 119,000 new jobs (as opposed to the expected 50,000). But it’s not all good news: unemployment rose to 4.4% (highest since October of ‘21) and August jobs got revised to show we actually lost 4,000 jobs that month. And yet if I want to revise my income from last year, it’s tax fraud…

Although the new data is from September (which is practically ancient history in today’s markets), the signals still matter for December Fed decisions, which are everything right now. Meanwhile, a lot of big names are cutting thousands of jobs rn: Amazon, General Motors, Verizon, and Target, to name a few. We're seeing a clear split between government data and what's happening on the ground in corporate America.

This leaves you in a tricky spot. Do you bet on the rearview mirror or the flashing warning lights right in front of you? Most people will probably let the Fed decide for them in December, tbh. And odds are leaning 75% toward a rate cut at the moment, which is bullish for markets.

Tariffs are making things complicated for wallets, and therefore, for portfolios. New data is showing that the US trade deficit fell by 24% in August. It turns out that putting taxes on imports makes them more expensive (who knew?).

But this is where it gets tricky. Those tariffs are a textbook recipe for inflation, as companies pass higher costs on to consumers. That's why we were seeing the Federal Reserve pump the brakes on December rate cuts (although the Fed seems to be open to a rate cut again now).

The Fed is stuck between a slowing job market and tariff-fueled inflation, and the Fed’s members themselves are split on rate cuts. We’re just asking for more green than red this Christmas season 😩

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

I want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Data provided by AltIndex and Quiver Quantitative.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.