Hello there.

Happy Monday! Someone said the Strait is open, so I’m finally digging my dinghy out. Hey, could you spot my $2M for the toll?

You know what, I never liked the water anyway. I’m content to kick back with my TACOs and watch the fiesta unfold. Vámonos!

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So the US and Iran agreed to a two-week “ceasefire”, and the market kinda assumed oil would start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again like nothing happened. It was a nice thought, at least. The CEO of the UAE's state-owned oil company basically said hold my crude and dropped some reality: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled."

Next, the US actually announced its own blockade of the Strait after peace talks failed last week. If Iran won’t let us use the Strait, the White House doesn’t want to let them use it either.

And the latest: markets just flipped slightly green because allegedly, Iranians couldn’t communicate easily with leadership this weekend, and that’s why peace talks failed… but Iran is apparently still interested in peace. So maybe there’s hope for a deal.

So, the reality is, no one is using the strait and both Iran and the US are trying to call one another’s bluffs, and we don’t know for SURE if Iran is interested in peace or not. About 20% of the world's oil used to flow through this narrow stretch of water before everything went sideways in February, and right now there are 230 tankers just sitting there, loaded with oil, waiting to leave the Persian Gulf. Very few are getting permission to do so.

The ceasefire sounded nice, but the actual oil flowing to actual markets is still quite stuck. Some 13 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production has basically been shut down because there's nowhere for it to go. That's well beyond that whole OPEC crisis your parents might’ve told you about from days of yore.

Hours after announcing the ceasefire last week, Trump posted on Truth Social that any country supplying weapons to Iran would face immediate 50% tariffs on everything they sell to the US. No exceptions, no exemptions.

Here's the thing, though: it's not clear he can actually do this. The Supreme Court struck down the main legal tool he was using for tariffs back in February. The 1977 emergency law that let him slap tariffs on countries, basically whenever he wanted, is gone. The tools he has left are slower and require actual investigations and justifications.

Everyone assumes this threat is aimed at China, which has been supplying Iran with drone parts and was reportedly close to selling them ship-killer cruise missiles. But here's the awkward part: Trump has a big summit with Xi Jinping scheduled for mid-May in Beijing. Dropping 50% tariffs on Chinese goods right before that meeting would be, let's say, a vibe killer.

Trade experts are basically saying this is an empty threat for now. US tariffs on Chinese products have actually gone down since the court ruling, and slapping massive new duties on them would hit American consumers and importers hard. It's like threatening to key your own car to prove a point.

Russia is the other obvious weapons supplier, but US imports from Russia are pretty small anyway, mostly stuff like palladium for car parts and fertilizer ingredients. The leverage just isn't there.

So where does that leave us? Trump still loves the tariff threat, but his legal playbook got a lot shorter. The ceasefire might hold, the strait might eventually reopen for real, and this whole situation might simmer down. Or it might not. Either way, oil prices and your wallet are definitely paying attention.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.