Hello there.

Happy Monday! Yes, I’ve heard such a thing is possible. “Dress for the Monday you want…” as they say. That’s why I’m at home in my PJs.

So, no tariff refunds for us, possible rate hikes, and a war with the possibility to turn it all up to 11? I’m not crying in the casino, you’re crying in the casino. Anyway, deal me in. 👇

In partnership with Roku

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The Supreme Court said Trump's tariffs were ruled as illegal, so the government started sending refunds. Apple got $2.2 billion, Amazon got $600 million, Nike got $300 million. Huge, funny numbers for quarterly earnings…. but only companies that paid the tariffs directly can file for refunds. And those higher prices you paid at the store last year while these tariffs were in effect? It’s estimated they cost the average household about $1,000. That’s put a squeeze on spending, but now retail’s getting its recompense… right?

Kind of, maybe. Most companies are being vague about what they'll do with the refunds. Walmart mentioned "price investments", Amazon said it might refund some customers in "limited circumstances." PepsiCo straight up said it's using the money to cover rising costs from the Iran war, so good on them for being direct at least?

So a whole lot of nothing for us, but still, this is worth watching. Companies reporting fat earnings boosts from tariff refunds (like E.l.f. Beauty, which nearly doubled its profits this quarter) are getting a one-time bump, not a permanent tailwind. Once refunds dry up, those margins go back to normal. So as the reports come out, make sure you’re reading them with the context in mind.

In partnership with America’s Gold Company

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If you thought the Fed was done messing with interest rates, think again. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari voted to hike interest rates at last week's meeting. He got outvoted 9 to 3, but his argument is gaining traction: corporate earnings are crushing it, the labor market is holding up, and inflation is still above 2%. If the economy isn't slowing down, maybe rates aren't actually restrictive enough.

If nothing else, Kashkari’s argument got the momentum moving. Markets are now pricing in a better chance of a rate hike by October than they were a week ago. If that happens, borrowing costs go up for everyone. For stocks, higher rates typically mean growth companies take a hit because their future earnings get discounted more heavily. The "risk on" trades that have been working all year could start to wobble.

The Fed still hasn't committed to anything, and other officials like Anna Paulson are pushing back, saying current rates are fine where they are. But the fact that three people voted to hike is notable. Keep an eye on CPI data this month. A hot print could tip the balance toward Kashkari's camp.

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

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We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.