Hello there.
Welcome to the week! Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about…well, there’s just been a lot of talk, really. But the talk this weekend was BIG:
💸 Iran and US Reached a Peace Deal (Maybe Actually For Real This Time©)
⚡️ Most People Agree: Down With Data Centers
🏠 …and Then He Said Fannie and Freddie Are Worth $1T (Spoiler: They're Not)
₿ SBF Wants to Run Free
🏛 Political Portfolio Spotlight: Rep. Michael T. McCaul (R-TX)
Alright, let’s dig in.
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🌊 Ships of the World, Start Your… Waiting Engines?
Surprise! President Trump just announced a 60-day ceasefire with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are stoked, and Brent crude oil is not, as the Nasdaq minted a new all-time high today and Brent crude oil plunged 4.4% to $83.51 a barrel.
Trump posted: “Ships of the world, start your engines.” But it’s not that simple…
Because out on the actual water, the shipping industry is telling everyone to pump the brakes. The physical reality is a lil bit stickier than a social media broadcast:
The 500-ship traffic jam: An estimated 500 merchant vessels are still stranded inside the Persian Gulf. Nobody wants to be the first guinea pig to test the peace treaty.
The minefield problem: Maritime security groups are pleading with shipowners to stay put. Safely de-mining the shipping lanes will take weeks after months of active conflict.
Just a trial run: This is a temporary framework to open a negotiating window. The formal pact isn't even scheduled to be signed in Switzerland until this Friday (PLEASE let them sign it, oh please).
It’s an immediate macro win that clips the wings of stubborn core inflation, but clearing the physical backlog is a process measured in weeks, not hours. Keep your eyes on Switzerland this Friday.
❓ Market Trivia
⚡️ The Policy Pulse
Opposition groups halted $130 billion in data center projects in Q1 2026, with 71% of Americans now opposing AI data centers in their area.
Trump denied Iran's account of a draft peace deal, calling the Iranians "very dishonorable people" after Tehran's state media leaked a 14-point alleged draft.
Gold hit its lowest level since November as investors dumped it on growing fears that higher inflation could force the Fed to raise rates.
OpenAI landed one of banking's largest AI deployments through a deal expanding ChatGPT Enterprise to all 120,000 BBVA employees across 25 countries.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heads into his first FOMC meeting next week with inflation at 4.2% and markets now pricing in a 70% chance of rate hikes rather than cuts.
🏠 Fannie and Freddie Fake It Til They Make It
The president just casually dropped that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might be worth a combined $1 trillion. The stock market got excited for like five minutes, then someone did the actual math, and everyone calmed down real fast.
As you’ll recall if you were old enough to care in 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the two giant mortgage companies that basically help people get home loans. They've been owned by the government since everything went sideways during the financial crisis. Trump's been trying to figure out how to sell them back to regular investors, which is where this whole valuation thing comes in.
Wall Street analysts immediately fact-checked him. Their estimate was more like $200-250 billion combined. Their actual combined net worth right now is around $186 billion, so Trump's number would mean they're worth 5x more than they actually are. So if it was just another flippant comment, why does this matter? If the government sells shares at a sky‑high valuation, that’s a potential payday for taxpayers. If it misfires, it could rattle the housing market in a very not-fun way.
Shares of both companies jumped about 10% when Trump made the comment, then fell back down when reality set in. The Trump administration wants to take these companies private again and apparently thinks crypto should be part of mortgage applications now (yes, really), which adds a whole extra layer of chaos to an already messy situation. And there's another wrinkle: the guy in charge of overseeing Fannie and Freddie, Bill Pulte, just got a second job as acting director of national intelligence. People are genuinely wondering how he's going to do both at the same time, and whether any of this IPO stuff is actually going to happen. Remember: No crying in the casino.
₿ The Coin Toss
Sam Bankman-Fried says he "absolutely" wants a Trump pardon but insists he hasn't lobbied the White House for one. His appeal was just denied, too.
A bipartisan House bill would create a federal task force to crack down on crypto theft, bringing together Justice, DHS, Treasury, and federal law enforcement.
The SEC proposed scrapping "Rule 611" on trade-through protections, which Galaxy's Alex Thorn called "one of the biggest unlocks yet for tokenized stocks".
Bitcoin miners are back in "capitulation" mode with profit margins hovering below 5%, a signal that has historically marked great accumulation opportunities.
Former SEC and CFTC Chair Gary Gensler filed an amicus brief arguing that prediction markets shouldn't preempt state gambling laws.
😆 Meme of the Day
What You Said Last Time
Answer: 18.6%, in 1981
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🏛 Political Portfolio Spotlight
Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.
We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.
Stock data brought to you by our partners at AltIndex.
Remember to always DYOR.
Rep. Michael T. McCaul (R-TX)
💲 Top Trades This Week:
[SELL] Visa Inc. (V)
🔍 Analysis:
McCaul’s trades this week show a shift from financial services into technology and infrastructure.
This looks like moving money out of a mature payments company and into businesses tied to data infrastructure, enterprise technology, and physical infrastructure projects.
The takeaway is sector rotation. Rather than reducing overall market exposure, McCaul appears to be repositioning toward areas that could benefit from long-term demand for technology systems, data storage, and infrastructure investment.
Rep. Michael T. McCaul (R-TX)
That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.
Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.
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