Hello there.

Another Monday! Alright, I’ve got our bags packed, ready to sail the open seas of Hormuz?

What do you mean? Of course, I read the Terms and Conditions. They never put anything important in there anyway. C’mon, let’s go!

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again.

After a ceasefire, failed peace talks, rumors of more peace talks, a reopening of the strait, and what seemed like progress… Iran got mad at the US over the weekend for apparently not following the rules of the ceasefire, started firing at ships, and shut down the strait again.

And Trump says it’s highly unlikely that he extends the ceasefire, which only lasts till this Wednesday.

Markets are down and oil is up today:

Now, there are new peace talks planned to take place today in Pakistan, which the US is attending. But Iran has made a big fuss over how they won’t be sending anyone. But then again, maybe they will. Super confusing. Just wake us up when the next “THEY OPENED THE STRAIT” headline hits.

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Mortgage rates, credit cards, and business loans will probably get more expensive if the war keeps going and keeps costing a lot.

Remember when everyone was arguing about student loan forgiveness, and the price tag was like $400 billion? Well, a Harvard professor just said the Iran war could cost taxpayers $1 trillion total, and Congress literally has no idea what the final number will be. When lawmakers asked the White House budget director for an estimate, he said: "I don't have a ballpark for you." So like, what are you “directing” then?

The first six days of fighting cost $11.3 billion according to the Pentagon, but Professor Linda Bilmes from Harvard says the real tab is way higher. She's including stuff like lifetime disability benefits for 55,000 troops, replacing military equipment at current prices instead of what we paid for it years ago, and the cost of rebuilding everything that got damaged. Oh, and those Iranian drones that keep getting fired? They cost $30,000 to make. The missiles we use to shoot them down? $4 million each. We're burning money faster than a trust fund kid at Coachella.

Here’s how it hits the market: The US already has $31 trillion in debt, and we're borrowing money at higher interest rates than during previous wars. That means bigger deficits, which typically means higher borrowing costs for everyone. Mortgage rates, credit cards, business loans, all of it gets more expensive when the government is competing for the same money. Defense stocks might see a short-term bump from the proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget increase, but long-term, piling debt onto an already massive pile usually doesn't end great for markets.

The really awkward part is the uncertainty. Markets hate not knowing what's coming, and right now, nobody can tell you if this war costs $100 billion or $1 trillion, or whether the fighting is truly over. That kind of fog makes investors nervous, which makes prices jumpy. Add in the fact that we're over a month into this conflict and still don't have a clear plan or price tag, and you've got a recipe for volatility that'll probably stick around longer than anyone wants.

The answer: Japan!

Elected officials have had a tremendous amount of success in the market recently.

We want to keep you updated on what they’re trading and when so you can leverage that intel as you plan out your own portfolio.

Trading data brought to you by our partners at AltIndex.

Remember to always DYOR.

That’s all for today. Write us and let us know your thoughts on the market, the newsletter, or the weather—we’d just love to hear from you.

Till next time,
— Brandon and Blake with Invested Inc.